hazishak
07-31 11:25 PM
My wife is planning to go for H4 visa stamping in October. My question is can she go alone and what kind of documents she need. Our I-485 applications have reached USCIS on July 2nd. Any reply will be greatly appreciated.
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gc_wannabe
06-17 08:40 AM
Years and years of waiting? no kidding. Look at my priority date. And there are people waiting before me. You used a pre-approved labor and have been waiting in the GC queue from what 2006? Dude, in today's world, a reasonable wait for eb3-is anywhere between 10-15 years and eb2 is atleast 5-6 years. I am not mad that you used a pre-approved labor, though in my personal opinion, its a taboo. I am just saying you are lucky enough that you may get your green card much quickly than people like us who have been waiting atleast 8-10 years and trust me, people like your case, usually should be happy.
I can empathize. I might me more luckier than you, and there are people *luckier* than me. (You know what I mean..) But, if for some reason I don't get my GC, and you get your GC in a few years, me being lucky to start with is of no use. Nothing is sure till GC is on-hand for anyone.
So, I would appreciate if someone could let me know if there are any disadvantages process-wise when it comes to I-485 adjudication on a pre-approved labor.
Thanks.
I can empathize. I might me more luckier than you, and there are people *luckier* than me. (You know what I mean..) But, if for some reason I don't get my GC, and you get your GC in a few years, me being lucky to start with is of no use. Nothing is sure till GC is on-hand for anyone.
So, I would appreciate if someone could let me know if there are any disadvantages process-wise when it comes to I-485 adjudication on a pre-approved labor.
Thanks.
mambarg
08-03 05:18 PM
Question 10. Should service centers or district offices deny portability cases on the sole basis that the alien has left his or her employment with the I-140 petitioner prior to the I-485 application pending for 180 days?
Answer: No. The basis for adjustment is not actual (current) employment but prospective employment. Since there is no requirement that the alien have ever been employed by the petitioner while the I-140 and/or I-485 was pending, the fact that an alien left the I-140 petitioner before the I-485 has been pending 180 days will not necessarily render the alien ineligible to port. However, in all cases an offer of employment must have been bona fide. This means that, as of the time the I-140 was filed and at the time of filing the I-485 if not filed concurrently, the I-140 petitioner must have had the intent to employ the beneficiary, and the alien must have intended to undertake the employment, upon adjustment. Adjudicators should not presume absence of such intent and may take the I-140 and supporting documents themselves as prima facie evidence of such intent, but in appropriate cases additional evidence or investigation may be appropriate.
Question 11. When is an I-140 no longer valid for porting purposes?
Answer: An I-140 is no longer valid for porting purposes when:
A. an I-140 is withdrawn before the alien�s I-485 has been pending 180 days, or
B. an I-140 is denied or revoked at any time except when it is revoked based on a withdrawal that was submitted after an I-485 has been pending for 180 days.
Question 12. Can the 180 days that an I-485 application must be pending for I-140 portability eligibility accrue during a period when visa numbers are unavailable?
Answer: Yes. The fact that a visa number becomes unavailable after the filing of the I-485 application does not stop the number of days required for I-140 portability eligibility from accruing.
Question 13. Does the alien�s priority date change as a result of porting under �106(c) of AC21?
Answer: No. The priority date continues to be determined at the time of the initial labor certification filing with the Department of Labor or at the time the initial I-140 immigrant petition is filed with USCIS (in cases where no labor certification is required).
Question 14. Must the alien have a new offer of employment at the time the I-485 is being adjudicated under the I-140 portability provisions?
Answer: Yes. The alien cannot still be looking for �same or similar� employment at the time the I-485 is being adjudicated under the adjustment portability provisions. The alien must be able to show there is a new valid offer of employment at the time the I-485 is adjudicated.
Answer: No. The basis for adjustment is not actual (current) employment but prospective employment. Since there is no requirement that the alien have ever been employed by the petitioner while the I-140 and/or I-485 was pending, the fact that an alien left the I-140 petitioner before the I-485 has been pending 180 days will not necessarily render the alien ineligible to port. However, in all cases an offer of employment must have been bona fide. This means that, as of the time the I-140 was filed and at the time of filing the I-485 if not filed concurrently, the I-140 petitioner must have had the intent to employ the beneficiary, and the alien must have intended to undertake the employment, upon adjustment. Adjudicators should not presume absence of such intent and may take the I-140 and supporting documents themselves as prima facie evidence of such intent, but in appropriate cases additional evidence or investigation may be appropriate.
Question 11. When is an I-140 no longer valid for porting purposes?
Answer: An I-140 is no longer valid for porting purposes when:
A. an I-140 is withdrawn before the alien�s I-485 has been pending 180 days, or
B. an I-140 is denied or revoked at any time except when it is revoked based on a withdrawal that was submitted after an I-485 has been pending for 180 days.
Question 12. Can the 180 days that an I-485 application must be pending for I-140 portability eligibility accrue during a period when visa numbers are unavailable?
Answer: Yes. The fact that a visa number becomes unavailable after the filing of the I-485 application does not stop the number of days required for I-140 portability eligibility from accruing.
Question 13. Does the alien�s priority date change as a result of porting under �106(c) of AC21?
Answer: No. The priority date continues to be determined at the time of the initial labor certification filing with the Department of Labor or at the time the initial I-140 immigrant petition is filed with USCIS (in cases where no labor certification is required).
Question 14. Must the alien have a new offer of employment at the time the I-485 is being adjudicated under the I-140 portability provisions?
Answer: Yes. The alien cannot still be looking for �same or similar� employment at the time the I-485 is being adjudicated under the adjustment portability provisions. The alien must be able to show there is a new valid offer of employment at the time the I-485 is adjudicated.
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srarao
07-21 11:03 PM
Hello,
When I first took my medical tests for I-485 with a doctor, the doctor put an additional document stating that: "I have a positive PPD that was read as 9mm of induration. A NORMAL chest x-ray was read. The patient is refered to their PCP or County Health Department for evaluation and possible treatment with INH for 9 months".
Now I received the RFE from CIS asking for the following:
"The form I-693 submitted is hereby returned because you TB test results were not documented appropriately. Additional documentation submitted from Civil Surgeon indicates that you were possibly being refered to the County Health Department for evaluation and have received teh follow up treatment.
The I-693 form must be properly endorsed by Civil Surgeon to reflect the following:
-> The date you first refered to the local health dept for evaluation
-> Name and address of the health dept
-> results of the X-ray and other TB test
-> Based on which you are medically cleared for adjustment status
"
If anyone had similar experiences, please let me know how to proceed on this issue.
PS: I got very late appointment with County Health department, so If I go to a private TB specialist and If I take the results to the original doctor and can he able to update my I-693 based on the TB specialist results?
If I go on 9 month medication will CIS wait 9 months to further process my petition or hold my EAD status?
If I go to a new doctor and If he gives me a new set of medical results, will CIS overlook previous doctor's comments?
I dont have much time as I just had 20 days left to send back my results to CIS.
Thanks for yor help.
Ravi
When I first took my medical tests for I-485 with a doctor, the doctor put an additional document stating that: "I have a positive PPD that was read as 9mm of induration. A NORMAL chest x-ray was read. The patient is refered to their PCP or County Health Department for evaluation and possible treatment with INH for 9 months".
Now I received the RFE from CIS asking for the following:
"The form I-693 submitted is hereby returned because you TB test results were not documented appropriately. Additional documentation submitted from Civil Surgeon indicates that you were possibly being refered to the County Health Department for evaluation and have received teh follow up treatment.
The I-693 form must be properly endorsed by Civil Surgeon to reflect the following:
-> The date you first refered to the local health dept for evaluation
-> Name and address of the health dept
-> results of the X-ray and other TB test
-> Based on which you are medically cleared for adjustment status
"
If anyone had similar experiences, please let me know how to proceed on this issue.
PS: I got very late appointment with County Health department, so If I go to a private TB specialist and If I take the results to the original doctor and can he able to update my I-693 based on the TB specialist results?
If I go on 9 month medication will CIS wait 9 months to further process my petition or hold my EAD status?
If I go to a new doctor and If he gives me a new set of medical results, will CIS overlook previous doctor's comments?
I dont have much time as I just had 20 days left to send back my results to CIS.
Thanks for yor help.
Ravi
more...
HV000
08-11 09:21 AM
The Administration Will Reform And Expedite Background Checks For Immigration. Current mechanisms for conducting immigration background checks are backed up, slowing processing times and endangering national security (finally!). The Administration is investing substantial new funds to address the backlog, and the FBI and USCIS are working together on a variety of projects designed to streamline existing processes so as to reduce waiting times without sacrificing security.
Full press release:
http://www.whitehouse.gov/news/releases/2007/08/20070810.html
They have not given a timeline for this reform. Hopefully they will a timeline for processing the cases.
Full press release:
http://www.whitehouse.gov/news/releases/2007/08/20070810.html
They have not given a timeline for this reform. Hopefully they will a timeline for processing the cases.
mps
04-21 02:25 PM
I got the Card Production Ordered e-mail today. No LUD even last night at 1 Am. Only one LUD today. My case is processed at Texas service center. And my receipt date is not with in their processing times.
Good luck to everyone.
Congratulations on getting your GC !!!
I need to ask you a question as I don't see on LUD after FP in 485. However LUD changed on my approved I-140.
Was there any LUD on I-140 case after your FP?
Regards
Good luck to everyone.
Congratulations on getting your GC !!!
I need to ask you a question as I don't see on LUD after FP in 485. However LUD changed on my approved I-140.
Was there any LUD on I-140 case after your FP?
Regards
more...
purplehazea
06-11 04:31 PM
I dont want your colour to change but media keeps writing stuff,i guess we are intelligent enough to make our informed judgements.
I do respect your view if you hold that as per your own judgement but I feel the time calls for teaming up with President rather than going after him.
This will do us good I guess.Rest, its your color,you can decide which one you want to wear:)
:) Alright lets leave the prez alone :p . Just curious, do you think this can move through senate, house and conference committee by august? I am following this drama for 2 years and my conclusion is that legislative action takes a lot of time from initiation to completion. With presidential politics building up for next year's election it will be very challenging to pass any law with the limited time on hand.
I do respect your view if you hold that as per your own judgement but I feel the time calls for teaming up with President rather than going after him.
This will do us good I guess.Rest, its your color,you can decide which one you want to wear:)
:) Alright lets leave the prez alone :p . Just curious, do you think this can move through senate, house and conference committee by august? I am following this drama for 2 years and my conclusion is that legislative action takes a lot of time from initiation to completion. With presidential politics building up for next year's election it will be very challenging to pass any law with the limited time on hand.
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rolrblade
07-27 04:44 PM
do they have to attach copy of email with the application?
In my case my application was filed on 2nd July but my attorney asked me to send the email on 3rd July just for records.
you are fine : read this from USCIS website:
Attorneys and accredited representatives filing any petition or immigration benefit application on behalf of petitioners and applicants must sign Form G-28, Notice of Appearance, and include the original with the filing. USCIS will continue accepting original Form G-28 bearing the facsimile signature of the attorney or accredited representative, e.g., a stamped signature, as allowed under the regulations governing the filing of applications and petitions and longstanding operational guidance.
Legal Requirements for the Signature on Petitions and Immigration Benefit Applications
Attorneys and Accredited Representatives: The signature of any attorney or accredited representative who has been granted legal authorization to sign on behalf of the petitioner or the applicant must be in the original.
this means as long as your attorney sent the original G-28 form with their signatures, you are okay. Also the email from you is "legal authorization" to sign.
All across these forums you will read numerous posts where people have not signed anything rather their attorneys have signed. This is very general practice.
In my case my application was filed on 2nd July but my attorney asked me to send the email on 3rd July just for records.
you are fine : read this from USCIS website:
Attorneys and accredited representatives filing any petition or immigration benefit application on behalf of petitioners and applicants must sign Form G-28, Notice of Appearance, and include the original with the filing. USCIS will continue accepting original Form G-28 bearing the facsimile signature of the attorney or accredited representative, e.g., a stamped signature, as allowed under the regulations governing the filing of applications and petitions and longstanding operational guidance.
Legal Requirements for the Signature on Petitions and Immigration Benefit Applications
Attorneys and Accredited Representatives: The signature of any attorney or accredited representative who has been granted legal authorization to sign on behalf of the petitioner or the applicant must be in the original.
this means as long as your attorney sent the original G-28 form with their signatures, you are okay. Also the email from you is "legal authorization" to sign.
All across these forums you will read numerous posts where people have not signed anything rather their attorneys have signed. This is very general practice.
more...
jasmin45
02-26 10:53 AM
Hi one question,,,if I go home to my country to study using H4 while my GC is pending,then suddenly the GC was sent to my sister here in US,can my sister just mail my GC to me in my country so that if i go back here in the US,i can present my GC to the US immigration???uh!im confussed!thanks!
First of all you have an "If" in your question. So I belive this is for future plan.
Now, when you say "suddenly GC was sent to your sister here in US" I am comfused as to whether your sister has already got the GC in mail and you are outside US?
I would request you to provide some more information on your status and info such as Whether you have had/will have approved "AP" etc before you left/plan to leave this country for studies.
First of all you have an "If" in your question. So I belive this is for future plan.
Now, when you say "suddenly GC was sent to your sister here in US" I am comfused as to whether your sister has already got the GC in mail and you are outside US?
I would request you to provide some more information on your status and info such as Whether you have had/will have approved "AP" etc before you left/plan to leave this country for studies.
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EndlessWait
06-20 12:46 PM
I believe H1/H4 has nothign to do with I485 application. You can file for her 485. Since she is on h1, you should mention h1 for Adavane parol. Since she has h1 stamped and can travel outside, advance parol is not required now. You can apply for AP any time while 485 is pending.
and since we are filing for AP now, i'd mention H4 on AP. is it right?
and since we are filing for AP now, i'd mention H4 on AP. is it right?
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Ann Ruben
07-14 08:02 AM
Hello Ruben,
Can you help me out on the visa? My employer had sent you an email last week to aruben@srrlaw.us with the subject name "Keerthi Shankar".
Earnestly waiting for your reply.
Thanks.
Hi Keerthi,
I would be happy to help. I don't recall getting an e-mail from your employer last week. It is possible that it ended up in a spam folder. Could you ask your employer to resend today and i will be on the lookout for it.
Ann
Can you help me out on the visa? My employer had sent you an email last week to aruben@srrlaw.us with the subject name "Keerthi Shankar".
Earnestly waiting for your reply.
Thanks.
Hi Keerthi,
I would be happy to help. I don't recall getting an e-mail from your employer last week. It is possible that it ended up in a spam folder. Could you ask your employer to resend today and i will be on the lookout for it.
Ann
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neogator
01-19 05:20 PM
Although your question is quite laughable and absurd, you could make a point by asking of a list of people who gave up on immigration to the US because of the EB3 backlog. And if these people did make it big..then you have a point.
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poorslumdog
09-04 12:20 PM
Guys,
Here is the list of people who recently died in my village. Let us all pray for their soul to rest in peace. Please understand that when we can pray for YSR..we can do for these people also. Every life has the same value...dont you agree..
1. xxxxxxxxx
2. yyyyyyyyy
3. zzzzzzzzz
Please all do pray for the poor souls. From today onwords I will post all the dead people list in IV and let us all pray for them. Thanks for your support and prayer. Please let your freinds and family know about this and ask them to join in our prayer. Once again thanks guys.
You are more than welcome to give red dots.
Edited Note: I am really frustrated to see how you people interpreted this post. I am not from AP or any of those poor souls. In fact they do not even know who is YSR. They all died due natural cause and age. They are all more than eighty years old. I was trying to emphasis, in this forum we do not need to discuss about YSR. He might be a beloved leader for someone and corrupt for others. Whatever may be the case take your discussion to the relevant place. The reason I started this thread to emphasis that there are lot of people dying across the country and around the world and we do not need to hold prayer for every one or they poor souls are not different from YSR and they also deserve to be remembered in our prayers. But you highly educated folks did not understand that and gave more reds or am I not presenting it properly...?
Here is the list of people who recently died in my village. Let us all pray for their soul to rest in peace. Please understand that when we can pray for YSR..we can do for these people also. Every life has the same value...dont you agree..
1. xxxxxxxxx
2. yyyyyyyyy
3. zzzzzzzzz
Please all do pray for the poor souls. From today onwords I will post all the dead people list in IV and let us all pray for them. Thanks for your support and prayer. Please let your freinds and family know about this and ask them to join in our prayer. Once again thanks guys.
You are more than welcome to give red dots.
Edited Note: I am really frustrated to see how you people interpreted this post. I am not from AP or any of those poor souls. In fact they do not even know who is YSR. They all died due natural cause and age. They are all more than eighty years old. I was trying to emphasis, in this forum we do not need to discuss about YSR. He might be a beloved leader for someone and corrupt for others. Whatever may be the case take your discussion to the relevant place. The reason I started this thread to emphasis that there are lot of people dying across the country and around the world and we do not need to hold prayer for every one or they poor souls are not different from YSR and they also deserve to be remembered in our prayers. But you highly educated folks did not understand that and gave more reds or am I not presenting it properly...?
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krishna_brc
09-17 09:38 PM
Hi,
I recieved my green card last month through Consular Processing and now getting a good offer. Is it OK to join another company just after 1 month of green card or I should wait for some more time. NEED SUGGESTIONS from experts:D
If you have good relations with your employer ask them to terminate your employment. That way at the time of your naturalization/citizenship you will have an alibi for "as to why you changed employment" with in 6 months.
This way you can prove that you had the intent to work for sponsoring employer but things didn't go well with the employer himself.
Thanks,
Krishna
I recieved my green card last month through Consular Processing and now getting a good offer. Is it OK to join another company just after 1 month of green card or I should wait for some more time. NEED SUGGESTIONS from experts:D
If you have good relations with your employer ask them to terminate your employment. That way at the time of your naturalization/citizenship you will have an alibi for "as to why you changed employment" with in 6 months.
This way you can prove that you had the intent to work for sponsoring employer but things didn't go well with the employer himself.
Thanks,
Krishna
more...
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onemorecame
06-25 02:51 PM
send new again. anyways first one is going to come back.
Why he sent before date?
Guru's Is it right that after filling 485, USCIS will process application according to PD(2003,2004,2005 like that) ?
or USCIS will process application with the date 485 application received?
or i am missing something over here.
Thanks
Why he sent before date?
Guru's Is it right that after filling 485, USCIS will process application according to PD(2003,2004,2005 like that) ?
or USCIS will process application with the date 485 application received?
or i am missing something over here.
Thanks
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vbkris77
04-22 11:20 PM
First of all, this is a wrong forum to went our your points about illegals.. We in IV encourage a legal immigration. But the moment we start excluding people, the list can go on and on.. You start with so called illegasl today (with due sympathy for using that word..), but this exclusion will go on to legals, new doctors, engineers willing to come, settle and work in USA. Remember this is a land of immigrants. If you have any doubt, just look at the new bills introduced by senators to effectively kill H1B program the only legal option for most educated to come to US.
Lets for instance say we want everyone to go back to their own countries.. Where do you want to draw that line to go back, 1980?, 1900? how about 1600??
Grow up and learn to innovate new ways to get employed and live a happy life. Don't try to ruin the very foundation on which this country is built. Trust me there are more patriots in this forum than you could imagine..
Lets for instance say we want everyone to go back to their own countries.. Where do you want to draw that line to go back, 1980?, 1900? how about 1600??
Grow up and learn to innovate new ways to get employed and live a happy life. Don't try to ruin the very foundation on which this country is built. Trust me there are more patriots in this forum than you could imagine..
more...
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bluez25
07-15 03:52 PM
I got my PCC in San Francisco Indian Consulate last year assuming that I might get the appointment. but never happened until now. I am not sure that is still valid PCC. I might have to go to India and then apply for a new one from the local police station.
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walking_dude
11-26 02:34 PM
Why do we always blame others for our problems? USCIS, DOL and now IVs lobbyists?
First of all, we wouldn't need any lobbyists if ALL members of our community ( including completely inert/inactive members like you) were doing their job. That is approaching the local lawmakers ( US Senators and Reps) office. If al 25,000 members of our site (or at least the majority of them) were doing this, we wouldn't even be needing any lobbying firm. We could have been doing it all ourselves, saving a lot of money and doing a better job.
Since that's not happening - because most members like you are scared shitless like Chicken Little that sky may fall on your heads if you do that - IV is not left with much option, but to use the services of the Lobbying firms.
Before asking Lobbying firm for refund, you should do your job of lobbying with your local lawmakers. If you were sharing your part of the responsibility, we wouldn't be needing them in the first place.
should we not ask for refund from our lobbyists..they lied to us last yearlobbying shoud be result oriented..not stuffing for their turkey...... sab hawa ke badhshah hai..;-)
First of all, we wouldn't need any lobbyists if ALL members of our community ( including completely inert/inactive members like you) were doing their job. That is approaching the local lawmakers ( US Senators and Reps) office. If al 25,000 members of our site (or at least the majority of them) were doing this, we wouldn't even be needing any lobbying firm. We could have been doing it all ourselves, saving a lot of money and doing a better job.
Since that's not happening - because most members like you are scared shitless like Chicken Little that sky may fall on your heads if you do that - IV is not left with much option, but to use the services of the Lobbying firms.
Before asking Lobbying firm for refund, you should do your job of lobbying with your local lawmakers. If you were sharing your part of the responsibility, we wouldn't be needing them in the first place.
should we not ask for refund from our lobbyists..they lied to us last yearlobbying shoud be result oriented..not stuffing for their turkey...... sab hawa ke badhshah hai..;-)
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satyasaich
06-12 10:29 AM
Severance package includes all benefits including health care. As per the law no can be paid full salary with deductions being made for Medicare and social security, if there is no valid status. My friends have gone through this stage in Big5, they can NOT cancel H1B until the last day of severance package validity.
Also remember that by law, employer has to arrange a one way ticket to the departing employee (not to the family members) to his/her foreign country and show it in record that they made all arrangements to send away the employee so that there is no overstay or illegal stay after severance package.
I have seen this happening so many times
If employee choses a different option to stay legally, that's up to the employee
If an employer fires an employee and continues to give severance pay for a couple of months, do they usually cancel H1B immediately or wait for the period of severance pay before cancelling H1B?
Also remember that by law, employer has to arrange a one way ticket to the departing employee (not to the family members) to his/her foreign country and show it in record that they made all arrangements to send away the employee so that there is no overstay or illegal stay after severance package.
I have seen this happening so many times
If employee choses a different option to stay legally, that's up to the employee
If an employer fires an employee and continues to give severance pay for a couple of months, do they usually cancel H1B immediately or wait for the period of severance pay before cancelling H1B?
myeb2gc
02-24 02:38 PM
Hi , My 140 is cleared. But my consulting company is smaller. I am in search of job, some marketing companys were asking me to change employer..... confused whether to stick with my employer OR change to a new employer.
alterego
10-19 08:15 PM
Buy only if you have a time horizon of over 5 yrs now. Preferably 10 yrs.
If you are in the enviable position of having a lot of cash or a big income ie cash flow. Then buy in steps every few months over the next 12-18 months, depending on when you see the recovery coming. Generally stocks predate the economy by 6 months and vice versa.
Here is my guess. This recession will be deeper and longer than other recent ones. I'm thinking recovery by 2010 at best here. So, I'm guessing the stocks markets will languish here or hereabouts for atleast a few months. If the credit markets improve, you might see a relief rally of 20% or so, but when the economic reality of deleveraging sets in, a pull back is likely. So much of 2009 will likely be ripe with long term investment opportunities.
The recovery will be more anemic than previous credit driven expansions as credit will almost certainly be more difficult to obtain going forward. So forget the days of 20 plus percent stocks gains, if you're making 10% you are making a killing going forward. If doubling or slightly better for your money in 10 yrs sounds like a good deal to you, that is the kind of deal you can probably expect and should go ahead and invest. If you feel you can do better elsewhere, buy that. We will see virtually no home price appreciation for the next 5 yrs, and perhaps a little longer. The concept of real estate as an investment is now out of vogue and will be so for some time, that along with tougher credit, and an inventory overhang will flatten any price appreciation anytime soon.
Taxes will almost certainly go up in some way or the other and future earnings power will probably erode in the coming decade. From the immigrant community perspective the best we can hope for is that the US decides to use the tax code to encourage savings by switching to a consumption tax and encourage savings and investments. It remains to be seen what approach they will take to taxes. In my view to purely tax the rich will not be as successful (though it will almost certainly be part of the mix of measures) as a more comprehensive and thoughtful overhaul.
Good luck!
If you are in the enviable position of having a lot of cash or a big income ie cash flow. Then buy in steps every few months over the next 12-18 months, depending on when you see the recovery coming. Generally stocks predate the economy by 6 months and vice versa.
Here is my guess. This recession will be deeper and longer than other recent ones. I'm thinking recovery by 2010 at best here. So, I'm guessing the stocks markets will languish here or hereabouts for atleast a few months. If the credit markets improve, you might see a relief rally of 20% or so, but when the economic reality of deleveraging sets in, a pull back is likely. So much of 2009 will likely be ripe with long term investment opportunities.
The recovery will be more anemic than previous credit driven expansions as credit will almost certainly be more difficult to obtain going forward. So forget the days of 20 plus percent stocks gains, if you're making 10% you are making a killing going forward. If doubling or slightly better for your money in 10 yrs sounds like a good deal to you, that is the kind of deal you can probably expect and should go ahead and invest. If you feel you can do better elsewhere, buy that. We will see virtually no home price appreciation for the next 5 yrs, and perhaps a little longer. The concept of real estate as an investment is now out of vogue and will be so for some time, that along with tougher credit, and an inventory overhang will flatten any price appreciation anytime soon.
Taxes will almost certainly go up in some way or the other and future earnings power will probably erode in the coming decade. From the immigrant community perspective the best we can hope for is that the US decides to use the tax code to encourage savings by switching to a consumption tax and encourage savings and investments. It remains to be seen what approach they will take to taxes. In my view to purely tax the rich will not be as successful (though it will almost certainly be part of the mix of measures) as a more comprehensive and thoughtful overhaul.
Good luck!
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